Cameron cobblers
The answers over Lord Cashpoint's generous funding of the Conservative Party have been dragged out of them by a Freedom of Information request, not as a result of Call Me Dave's desire to be more open.
Forced honesty is no honesty at all.
The fact is some time before the election has answered the questions. It has been done. And it was done by me - right?
If that was genuinely the case, why did he wait until the last few days before the information was going to be released in any case before putting it out in the public domain? These questions have been around for years and apparently the Tory leadership did not think to ask Milord Cashcroft about whether he had actually kept his promises.
Labels: David Cameron, Lord Ashcroft
BNP Photo Fail
Not even able to take a simple publicity photo...
Good to see the nutty Rev West is still around. He used to run the
Christian Council of Britain, which he denied was a BNP front organisation.
Labels: BNP, Fail
Papering over Osborne.
Welcome to the new faces of Conservatism -
five white blokes in suits. The usual suspects. Cameron and Hague, Cuddly Ken Clarke, Michael Gove and Jeremy Hunt (another of the former PR-merchants in the Tory party). All Oxbridge, all with no significant life experience outside politics.
But wait - no room for the man who would be our next Chancellor? The man who should be front and centre, explaining how the Tories will take us out of recession and into depression? The man before whom conventional economists cower in fear of his intellect? George Osborne has been sidelined.
The Tories deny that Mr Osborne or Mr Grayling have been snubbed. They say Mr Osborne will concentrate on his behind-the-scenes role as the Tories’ Election mastermind and will make occasional public appearances.
Oh good. Can't wait for those carefully stage-managed events where Osborne isn't allowed to answer questions or stray from a carefully-prepared script.
No room either for Caroline Spelman - perhaps she can't find a nanny - or Teresa May, let alone anyone from any other minority background.
But more importantly, we want George, front and centre. Never mind that
privately, they admit that Mr Osborne gets low ratings in confidential Conservative polls and was damaged by reports of how he was entertained on Russian oligarch Oleg Deripaska’s yacht in Corfu
He wants a top job - put him to the test.
Labels: Conservatives, General Election, George Osborne
Countdown and out
Those who can do, those who can't, teach and those who can't teach become Tory education ministers. Question Time this week saw a car crash of a performance from
Carol Vorderman, when she was thoroughly outclassed by those around her and her 'independent' voice was exposed as a sham.
Unqualified to serve as a teacher under a Tory government, she relied on reading her crib notes - wonder who briefed her? - and independently took shots only at Labour throughout the show.
Gaby Hinsliff watched the show as well
Chatty Carol, the lovable whizz with a whiteboard, metamorphasised before the Question Time audience into a malfunctioning robot apparently programmed by a shock jock. Smoke billowed from her wiring as she veered between shrill (on the public's apparent right to hunt down Jon Venables) and hesitant (whenever she lost her place in her cribnotes). By the time they got on to Iraq, the whiff of melting circuitry filled the studio.
Labels: Carol Vorderman, education, Question Time
Tower Block of Expenses
Nadine Dorries has a story - Mark Oaten apparently trousered £3600 for his appearance on Tower Block of Commons, staying in a council flat of someone on benefits worth a twentieth of that. Liberal Democrats winning here, certainly.
Shameless.
Labels: Mark Oaten, Nadine Dorries, Tower Block of Commons
Stolen words
Shamelessly stealing Michael Foot's
words from Bob Piper, who himself stole them:
We are not here in this world to find elegant solutions, pregnant with initiative, or to serve the ways and modes of profitable progress. No, we are here to provide for all those who are weaker and hungrier, more battered and crippled than ourselves. That is our only certain good and great purpose on earth, and if you ask me about those insoluble economic problems that may arise if the top is deprived of their initiative, I would answer ‘To hell with them.’ The top is greedy and mean and will always find a way to take care of themselves. They always do.
Remember also Harold Wilson's dictum
The Labour Party is a moral crusade or it is nothing.
Labels: Labour, Michael Foot
Cashcroft - the albatross hanging around Dave's neck
So, William Hague knew some months ago that Milord Ashcroft had not stuck to the spirit of his assurances, but only let Dave know about it within the last month. Lord Ashcroft has misled at least two Tory leaders - Iain Duncan Smith wasn't there long enough to matter - about his tax status. He promised to become a permanent resident - which should have been enough in the eyes of the Revenue for him to be domiciled in the UK for tax purposes - but didn't.
Hague and Brown don't come out of this well. Either neither felt brave enough to challenge Lord Cashpoint over his tax status or they knew the truth - even in a plausibly deniable way - and chose to ignore it.
Ashcroft has to go, despite his status as a foul-weather friend who has now magnetically attracted fresh storms to the party. His continued presence at the heart of the party is hamstringing the campaign - Conservatives have made themselves unavailable to discuss the matter and this prevents them from making key statements on policy, as they are bound to be asked about Ashcroft. They are hoping that this will all blow over, but I'm not so sure that it is done. Both the Liberal Democrats and Labour have an interest in prolonging this row and they are milking it for all they can, as it really speaks to the heart of the Conservative party and how much they really represent change.
It was very interesting and perhaps a signal of a battle yet to come that tonight's Question Time saw the blonde bombshell, Boris Johnson, distancing himself from Lord Cashcroft - perhaps positioning himself ready to replace Dave.
Remember, unlike other non-dom donors, Ashcroft has a central role in the party, directing strategy in the marginal seats. Ashcroft is the only non-dom who made a promise to their party leader to take up permanent residence and has failed to do so. Ashcroft only 'spoke out' about his tax status when he was forced to by the imminent release of information under the Freedom of Information Act.
Meanwhile, a
very important poll in the key marginal seats - the ones that would deliver a Tory majority - showed that their lead had dwindled over 18 months from a 13 point lead to just 6.5% this month, running some two points ahead of the national swing. This leaves the Tories the largest party, but 11 short of a majority. It seems that the Ashcroft money isn't buying the votes as easily as you would think.
Labels: Conservatives, Lord Ashcroft, opinion poll
Michael Foot - 1913-2010
Michael Foot was perhaps the last of the great radical, idealists in a tradition dating back to the formation of the Labour Party. His was a magnificent oratorical style, suited to the campaigning format of an earlier age, where public meetings were the main format of communication with the electorate. The modern media machine has encouraged the destruction of this content-heavy, sometimes ponderous style in favour of communications-lite demand for the soundbite. If you get the chance, listen to Foot's Commons good-humoured, but devastating, assault on Keith Joseph and Conservative economic policy in 1980, which has all the timing and delivery of a top-line comic and clearly had the audience held rapt for the duration, as Joseph was compared to a magician who had forgotten how to complete a difficult trick and was left with the shattered watch of an important member of the audience. That wouldn't have a chance of being featured in a news programme today, if Cameron or Brown were to use it. But times were different then. Back in the 1930s, when Foot first stood for parliament, he did so by the simple expedient of walking into Labour's headquarters, asking where they were short of candidates and then being selected to fight the safe Conservative seat of Monmouth the next day - a process that makes the current short-form selection look ponderous. Back in the 1950s, social networking was carried out through the medium of a loudspeaker and a soapbox and Foot was a master of it.
This is the man who gave us the memorable description of Norman Tebbit as a
semi-housetrained polecat
or nailed Margaret Thatcher
she has no imagination and that means no compassion.
Many workers today owe him a debt, for it was Foot who navigated the Health and Safety at Work Act through Parliament, which created a modern structure for protecting the workforce. Perhaps it was fitting that it fell to him to up date legislation first started in the Victorian age and it can be said that this Act has genuinely saved lives and prevented injury.
Leadership came to him late in life and he was not suited to it, but he probably provided his greatest service to his beloved Labour Party - taking the weight of the 1983 defeat and handing the reins over to the new generation who were ready to take the party through a decade of hard graft and pain to make it electable.
He was, by every account, a man with an enormous hinterland. Politics was key to his life, but was not his only interest. You suspect that some of his greatest pleasure came from watching and hoping against all hope - and the evidence of previous performances - that Plymouth Argyle would make their way to the top to British football. As the former vice-chairman of the club wrote in the Guardian today
Michael supported Plymouth Argyle for about 90 years, through thin and thin. He was completely mad about them. I ran into him when he had just stood down as Labour leader, around 1984. I was milling around outside the ground and Michael came stomping over and said: "You're Argyle fans – where do we stand?" We stood on the terraces together and as we left he said, "well, you must ring", as he didn't have any chums to go to Argyle with. So I rang. From then we went to loads of games.When he was 90, in 2003, I thought, what can you give a man like Michael Foot? We registered him as a player with the Football League, the oldest ever. We gave him a squad number, 90, so he appeared in the programmes for the whole season. In a speech I announced he was being hired as a left-winger, with strict instructions from the manager never to stray anywhere near the centre and certainly nowhere near the right.
And from Neil Kinnock, his successor as leader and a man with a talent for oratory himself
(Michael) was a resolute humanist with profound faith in the ability of "free men and women using free institutions" to secure irreversible advances in standards of living and liberty for every country and community. He was a friend to all who strove against want and injustice, an inveterate enemy of exploitation and greed. He was ferocious and funny, principled but never precious, courteous but never deferential, provocative but never vindictive, creative but never abstract. "Describe the challenges by all means," he said, "but don't confuse analysis with action. The one must lead to the other if it is to be useful to people."
Labels: Labour
Curious
On Sunday, Mike Smithson over at Political Betting reported that the
Sunday Times had altered the figures reported on the YouGov survey to reduce the Tory lead from 6% to 2%. At the time, I commented that this poll seemed like an outlier and further confirmation was required. Today's poll from YouGov,
published in the Sun, extends the Tory lead back to 7%, ascribing the 5% shift to Cameron's speechifying in Brighton.
This seems like a big leap based upon one speech which was generally received with mixed results. I would posit two alternative theories.
One, that Sunday's poll was an outlier and gave a freak result just outside the margin of error.
Two, that the Sunday Times took the worst possible outcome from the poll as the headline figure to try to create a Tory bounce.
Labels: opinion poll
Ashcroft exposed
For a decade, the Conservatives have skirted round the issue of Lord Ashcroft's tax status. They have never corrected reports that he had committed to being a permanent resident in the UK for tax purposes and when directly asked, there was an agreed turn of phrase about having no reason to believe that he was not complying with his commitments, to the point where the Information Commissioner criticised them for their "
evasive and obfuscatory" comments on Ashcroft's status.
And yet, when fellow Conservative George Young
lets the cat out of the bag,
He is in the same position as a number of Labour peers who are non-domiciled and who fund the Labour party
the Tory machine goes into overdrive, forcing him into a humiliating climbdown by claiming that he had 'misspoken' by telling the truth.
David Cameron professed delight that Ashcroft has come out and admitted his status, spinning it as some sort of openness on his lordship's part, rather than a result of enforcement by the Information Commissioner - ironically against the government's own Cabinet Office which had refused to disclose the information.
And before the Tories kick off about the Labour non-doms, remember that Lord Ashcroft is a bit different. Not only have the Conservatives obfuscated when presented with any direct questions about his tax status, but Lord Ashcroft has given - directly or indirectly - £6.7 million since 2001 and we have no idea what he gave before that. Rumours suggest that he effectively sustained the party through the painful years between 1997 and 2001 and it is known that he personally guaranteed a £3 million loan to the party. He has flown Tory shadow cabinet members around the globe, sitting in on key meetings between William Hague and representatives of other governments. Lord Ashcroft is a deputy chairman of the Conservative Party, with a desk at the heart of their headquarters and a key role in funding campaigns in the vital marginal seats.
Labels: Lord Ashcroft
Cuts in secret?
Birmingham councillors are elected as councillors for all of the city, although they obviously represent particular wards. They take decisions affecting the whole of the city, yet councillors are being denied access to full information.
Labour councillors, curious to understand the level of cuts imposed by the Conservative/Liberal Democrat administration, have asked to see the same level of detail that they get for their own constituency committees for others, where there is no Labour representation. This has been denied.
This can only be for political reasons and you have to ask - what are they trying to hide?
Labels: Birmingham Council, Secrecy
Terry's Huge Bill
There is something almost obscene that one of the first thoughts of Birmingham's Childrens' Services when confront with the genuine horror of the
Khrya Ishaq case was to hire
a PR merchant specialising in reputational management on a
whopping £800 a day for 141 days, some £113,000. As always, I have to ask - if the largest council in the UK does not have people capable of carrying out this task, then why not?
No wonder, the department was described as being unfit for purpose by its own boss.One question that has not been asked is that, given that the contract was for 141 days and likely to exceed £50,000 in total, was it advertised or was it deemed to be exempt under the council's own standing orders?According to the Council's own briefing, Terry Brownbill is apparently possessed of
considerable specialist knowledge of supporting local authorities, particularly where children have died in suspicious circumstances
although his website is silent on this specialist knowledge.
He does have considerable specialist knowledge of the the issues of travellers, becoming a leading light in the formation of a campaign group
Middle England in Revolt around his home in Cambridgeshire. Much of his work relates to this part of the world, with him stepping to the fore to
defend Fenland District Council for employing a part time chief finance officer who had relocated to Adelaide and carried out all his work - including appearing at council meetings - remotely and for the bargain price of £20,000 for this one day a week.
Still, we end up with a council more worried about reputational damage and spin.
Labels: Birmingham Council, Media
Marking the polling card
Much as I'm delighted to see the Conservatives just 2 points ahead in the polls, this is the time when I add my own caveats.
Firstly, there is the standard outliers warning - this YouGov poll is ahead of any other, so I'd like some confirmation before I start breaking out the sparkling water.
Then there is the standard Liberal Democrat factor, which I have noted before - they are consistently underestimated in national polls outside election time, usually by three points or so, because they do not get the same coverage as the two main parties and can't afford the advertising presence.
Added to that standard comment are two specific 2010 Liberal Democrat polling elements which could have opposite effects on their showing.
For the first time since 1992 - which was in itself the first occasion since 1979 - this election is going to be a real contest about who governs Britain and unless something spectacular happens in the next few weeks, that means a choice between one of two parties. In that kind of election, conventional wisdom expects a higher turnout and a squeeze on the other parties, who are typically recipients of the protest vote for disaffected supporters of either the Conservatives or Labour.
The counter to that is that this time, Nick Clegg - Cameron-lite - will be participating as an equal in the leaders' debates in the run up to the election. His performance could significantly affect the out turn for the Liberal Democrats in bringing any undecided voters on board. In the actual poll, the Liberal Democrats will also benefit from tactical voting, as voters back them as the best chance of keeping either the Tories or Labour from holding a seat. Expect that to be a big issue in Solihull, as I suspect Labour voters are tacitly encouraged to back Lorely Burt in the hope of keeping her in place.
A bigger issue for me is the effect of voting in the marginals and how the uniform national swing indicated in the polls is not relevant. This election is not going to be decided in Sutton Coldfield or Ladywood, where the vote for the Conservatives and Labour can be safely weighed. It will be fought on the ground in a relative handful of seats, many of which have 'benefitted' from the Ashcroft largesse over the past few years, as the Conservative party has become a partly-owned subsidiary of the Ashcroft brand. There could be a disproportionate swing in safe seats for either party that will affect the national figures, but the real interest is in these marginals. I suspect that there will be an additional 3-5% swing to the Conservatives ahead of the national trend in the marginal seats and that this could make the difference.
So, while these national, headline polls are interesting, they may not be representative of the final outcome, which I suspect will be largely about turnout.
Labels: opinion poll
Economics for Osborne
Given that we're just about out of recession, does that mean that he'll be powering us into a full-on depression? He's certainly turned his poll ratings around. Last autumn, he was romping away with a double-digit lead, which has shrunk to a two point lead according to the latest YouGov poll.
Labels: Conservatives, David Cameron, George Osborne
Gideon's about
Demonstrating that his powers of communication remain undiminished, George Osborne was on the rounds of the TV and radio stations this week, full of his usual doom and gloom and promising an emergency budget within 50 days of the planned Conservative victory (it was originally pencilled-in for the first couple of days, but now he needs to see the books first). Cuts to public spending are back on the agenda, but he's ruled out swingeing.
Curious George was also his usual consistent self, reading his script that Britain needs to show that it is open for business and that the first steps towards creating jobs involve getting rid of existing ones.
Back in 2005, Danny Kruger was bounced from the parliamentary candidacy in Sedgefield (not the most winnable Tory target) for suggesting that a period of creative destruction - an economic theory close to the neoconservative heart - and then ended up advising Cameron for a while. It seems that the destructionist ideal remains current, however misguided and intolerant of humanity it is.
Labels: economy, George Osborne
Tory lead narrows, panic sets in
TORY HQ, EARLIER...
"Right chaps, we've tried terrifying them with fake crime figures, we're scaring them over social care, we've even thrown in vague fears about padded bras for the tweenies - we're even going to worry them about the route of the railway. And still the blighters won't vote for us. What's left? Anyone? Osborne? Osborne?"
That's how bad it is for the Tories - end of a third term, end of a recession and they still aren't leaping ahead of Labour in the polls.
Alistair Campbell puts it well:
The Tories really should be doing so much better, and must be getting worried as to why they're not. An economy that has gone through a period of genuine crisis. Politics dominated by expenses. A current war becoming more unpopular and a recent unpopular war returning to the centre of the political debate. A tame media that fails to pursue them on difficult questions. A huge spending imbalance in their favour which is allowing them to put up expensive posters all over Britain, and fire millions of letters to voters in marginal seats. Yet as their spending has increased, their lead has not increased with it.
So, they turn to Gideon and he scrabbles around in his limited intellect and offers up a bribe.
Vote Tory and get cheap shares.
Tory lead narrows to just 6 points over Labour - lowest gap since December 2008.
- Conservative - 39% (down 1 point)
- Labour - 33% (up 2 points)
- Lib Dem - 17% (down 1 point)
Game.
On.Got to love the comment from the unnamed Tory MP who is clearly not a Cameroon
The inner circle can crow all they like about how well they are doing, but the elephant in the room is the polls. Cameron spent last week talking about sexualisation of children and nine-year-old girls in suspenders, when there are much more important issues he should be talking about.
We're still talking about a hung parliament with the Tories the largest party, but let's run with the message from Gordon.
We will fight for every single vote, in every single seat on every day between now and the close of polls. Labour’s fight begins today – and it's one that together we can, and must, win.
Harriet Harman opened this morning by reminding us that this fight is about the future of our country and she wasn't wrong. This isn't about change for the sake of change, about replacing the party at the top just because we're a bit bored with their narrative, this is about the future itself and how we want that to develop.
Labels: opinion poll
Sent to Coventry
Just back from a quick trip to see the Prime Minister.
We ran the gauntlet of a silent protest of Tory students - a handful of them, some waving home-painted signs demanding 'Brown Out.' Some of these were discarded carelessly by the protestors, so I've ensured that at least one has been brought home to form the base of the cat litter tray for the next week. Really - back in the 80s, we had slogans and songs, we didn't just mope around. Students today, eh?
Far more Labour-supporting students were present inside the hall -
not bussed in as the Tories do - once we'd dodged Krishnan Guru-Murthy and his camera crew, who were taking soundings from members on the new Labour slogan. My daughter and I amused ourselves by playing spot-the-politico and there were a few there - Lynda Waltho from ultra-marginal Stourbridge, Ian Austin, Pat McFadden, Geoffrey Robinson, Bob Ainsworth and Steve McCabe were all there, flying the flag. The main turns then appeared and took their seats amongst the audience.
This was an interesting shift, as they took turns to make their speeches from the floor amongst the members and guests, not sitting on the platform. Harriet Harman opened proceedings briefly from the platform, before handing over to Alistair Darling, then Alan Johnson, Yvette Cooper and Peter Mandelson all warming up for the main act and confirming their relative status within the party by their placing on the theatrical bill for the meeting.
Mandy was his usual, bullish self. He's not a boot boy in the Tebbit mould, but rather more fond of a
pplying a well-turned John Lobb loafer to the sensitive areas of the Conservative Party. His speech was rather good, praising the employers and employees who have worked together to see their businesses through the recession by reducing hours and pay. Not unreasonably, he described them as the real heroes and promising the government's ongoing support to allow them to grow and pull us out of recession with active support for enterprise from a government that is committed to their future. Peter Mandelson may be called the Prince of Darkness, but he has been one of the shining lights in recent months, prepared to hit the radio and TV studios, taking the fight to the Conservatives through the media and not letting them have the media story all their own way. Magnificent stuff - and I look forward to more of it.
And then came the birthday boy, threading his way through the audience, shaking hands and enjoying the welcoming applause.
He's far better in these smaller, more intimate venues and he's nowhere near as airbrushed as his opponent, but Gordon has clearly worked hard on his skills in performing on these big, theatrical occasions. But this is the thing about him - you aren't getting an android designed to look good on posters and spout media-friendly platitudes, this is a real human being, with human frailties and failings, but with that come the deeply-held beliefs and a background that has driven him to where he is now. He's not flash, just Gordon.
I liked his opening line about the Conservative liability, the Shadow Chancer, George Osborne, of whom it is apparently said that from a Tory point of view,
he has lost the art of communication, but not sadly, the power of speech
Those airbrushed photos of Dave were mentioned as the
greatest advertising money Labour never spent
and there were further brickbats thrown at the Conservatives, reminding us why they are unfit for power, as they chose cheap political point scoring over a meeting with other parties and expert, charitable stakeholders to discuss the future of long-term care for the elderly. That they preferred to sit aside rather than engage in the white paper over the vital High Speed Two line between London and Birmingham and beyond. He stressed that the Tory policies don't come without a price - a price that will be paid by ordinary families.
Like all his colleagues, he recognised that we cannot campaign on our record alone, but must look to the future too. Interestingly, he spoke about the force of the market and how it has worked for freedom and prosperity, but also about how it needs to be moderated by morals - it isn't just about price, but about values, too. We will seek a global agreement over a bank transaction levy. He promised that a Labour government will deliver on rebuilding and renewing infrastructure and encouraging new industries - renewable energy, biotech firms and the digital and creative industries.
Essentially, there are four key messages for the campaign ahead.
- Securing the recovery
- Supporting new industries and new jobs
- Cut the deficit but protect frontline services
- Act for the many, not the few
Shrewdly, he's turning his imperfections into positives by using them to stress that he comes from a relatively ordinary background.
I know where I come from, I know what I stand for, and I know who I came into politics to represent. And if you, like me, are from Britain's mainstream majority - from an ordinary family that wants to get on and not simply get by, then my message to you today is simple: take a second look at us and take a long hard look at them.
If this signals a decision by the party that we're going to fight for this election, that we haven't given in to the inevitable, as spun by the media, that we think that the future is still up for grabs, then we have to be out there, making the case, demonstrating that the Labour Party is the one party fit and capable of guiding this country through the recession and back to prosperity.
Nobody believes that this election will be easy or anything less than our most challenging election since I don't know when - 1992, perhaps? One thing is clear, we must give people good reasons to vote Labour. People may feel that change is necessary, but they aren't sold on the idea that the Tories are the answer. We need to show people that a protest vote to elect a Conservative government simply because they aren't Labour will impose real costs on families and other people in your area.
Labels: Gordon Brown, Labour
Don't sexualise the kids, says Dave
Advertising firms that market to children in an age-inappropriate way will be blocked from government contracts for three years, says Dave, in a bid for the mums' vote.
Meanwhile, his spin doctor in chief, Andy Coulson, keeps quiet about his time running the News of the World, a 'newspaper' that only exists because of a fascination with other people's sex lives. Or his time on The Sun, where he thought that a good political question was asking the Prime Minister if he was a member of the Mile High Club, while the paper carried on printing pictures of half-naked women on page 3.
Not that this contributes to an oversexualised society, of course.
Quite how much of a threat this is is another matter, as Dave has promised to take an axe to government advertising.
This has the feel of yet another policy invented on the back of an envelope, because Dave's old mates in
advertising have questioned the point of the government duplicating work already done by the ASA - which has only had to take action on five occasions in the past three years on issues over unnecessary sexualisation.
Hamish Pringle, IPA Director General, said: "This is a classic example of policy on the fly and as usual with such proposals they crash land when confronted with some facts." He added: "You can't just airbrush over nearly fifty years of the highest standards in legal, decent, honest and truthful advertising, governed by tough Codes, abided by over 95% of the time by advertisers and their agencies, and enforced by a world class self-regulator in the ASA. Cameron's idea of a "specially set-up website" would pull the rug out from under the ASA and is clearly ill-thought-out."
This is another policy that has grabbed a headline and will now be allowed to gather dust.
Labels: advertising, Conservatives, David Cameron
Irony lives
The shortfall in capital spend in leisure services is pitting the Mike Whitby Vanity Swimming Pool against community facilities in Sparkhill, Moseley and Stechford.
Put simply, while
the cabinet report approved in October 2009 lists sources of funding totalling £102.4 million, very nearly half - £51.1 million - is classed as high risk. A further £7.5 million is earmarked only for Harborne and BALC and is thus unavailable to Sparkhill/Moseley. Referring to the contingency and capital receipts funding, the report notes that
Due to the high risk nature of the above potential sources of funding, it is considered that these cannot be assumed at this time to support the pool programme
The remaining low risk funding amounts to £28.5 million, insufficient to support the 5om pool and also unlikely to be sufficient to deliver the Harborne, Sparkhill, Moseley and Stechford community options. Once you take out the approved spending on Harborne, you are left with £17.2 million available - which is probably enough to deliver on Sparkhill and Moseley in some form, but not anywhere near enough to provide for the replacement of the tired-looking Cascades pool in Stechford.
Unless the capital funding situation eases rapidly, I suspect that it will come down to whether the political leadership is prepared to abandon either the 50m BALC complex or drop the community pools. I genuinely don't see a prospect of being able to afford both. It should be noted that the report put forward in October has committed the council to progress BALC, in principle at least and subject to planning and funding, putting that project ahead of any of the other community pools. As Whitby is committed to BALC and Mullaney firmly attached to Sparkhill/Moseley Road (although no councillor seems to be standing up for Stechford), the fight is very interesting.
All of this makes the
title of the art project currently running at Moseley Road Baths rather more prescient than merely ironic.
Labels: Birmingham Council, Martin Mullaney, Swimming Pools
Lies, damn lies and Tory statistics
Airbrushing pictures isn't enough, the Tories are now airbrushing the statistics. We saw that with
Chris Grayling and his abuse of the crime figures, to the point where the chairman of the UK Statistics Authority felt that he had to intervene, warning that Grayling's wilful misinterpretation of the figures was
likely to damage public trust in official statistics
Grayling's flailing defence of the indefensible, attempting to claim that the changes in recording methods didn't affect his argument - which is utter rubbish.
Then this week, we've had a minor decimal error in a report, which now states that 54% of girls in the most deprived areas get pregnant before the age of 18.
The actual figure is 5.4%.
Perhaps it was a simple mistake, but why did nobody spot it?
Is it that they don't understand statistics? Was it just a simple error?
Or did somebody look at the figures and assume that because this was about areas of deprivation that the figures must be right? Do they actually believe the propaganda?
The Lib Dem Danny Alexander put his finger on it"The Tories seem to think that half our teenagers are pregnant, our cities are like The Wire and that people will get married for a few extra quid. If they really believe Britain is like this, it's remarkable that Conservative MPs can pluck up the courage to leave their houses. They should lower their drawbridges, spend less time tending their moats and duck houses, and join the rest of us in the real world."
Meanwhile,
Don Paskini reviews a book that puts the lie to the tabloid tales of teenage pregnancy and challenges the received wisdom of the Daily Mail. Doubtless, because it is based upon academic research, it will receive precisely no coverage. I wonder if we'll hear that the birth rate to mothers aged 15-19 is now lower than it was in 1957 or is half that of the peak year of 1971? I doubt it.
Perhaps that is because it doesn't allow for easy answers - like encouraging marriage or tackling teenage pregnancy. Failed marriages and teenage pregnancy aren't causes in themselves, but symptomatic of a wider injustice - that of social and economic disadvantage. That may not fit the received narrative that Britain is a broken society, but it appears to have some foundation in reality.
Labels: Chris Grayling, marriage, Statistics, teenage pregnancy
Look how far we've come....
One of Labour's greatest achievements has been the investment in the NHS that has delivered a real saving - lives.
In another reminder, last Friday, I was fortunate to have a chat with Baroness Morris of Yardley, formerly the Member of Parliament for Birmingham Yardley prior to the spread of the reign of Hemming.
She spoke of a local school that she had visited during her first term as MP, where the water supply and foul waste pipes ran inside a corridor, where it got so cold in winter that these pipes froze and cracked.
Under Labour, that school has been rebuilt.
Remember that.
Also via Bob:
Labels: NHS
No early bath in Sparkhill
The battle for second place in Hall Green is hotting up, with
Respect's Cllr Salma Yaqoob accusing the Liberal Democrats of misleading the electorate over the future of Sparkhill Baths - closed for some months following the discovery of structural problems. In return, the champion of local democracy, Moseley Cllr Martin Mullaney and the boss of Leisure Services, has complained to the Standards Committee about her blog post, after demanding that she alter it to match his view of reality.
Thing is, I think she has a point.
On the left is a leaflet distributed by the Liberal Democrats in Sparkhill, showing a suitably-scrubbed-up Cllr Jerry Evans (currently best placed to come second in the upcoming parliamentary election) posing in front of the closed pool and the unequivocal statements
'Your local Lib Dem team have succeeded in securing funding for the rebuilding of Sparkhill Baths.... the rebuilding is likely to take around 2 years to complete'
That seems pretty clear. We can expect the bulldozers any time soon.
Or can we? Let's roll things back a little - and bear with me, because this takes a little unravelling to get to the truth.
4.3 .... A condition survey for Sparkhill Pool has been completed indicating that
the structure is failing and is unsafe for use and it would be more cost effective to
replace than refurbish.
4.4 Given the funding position, at this time, as outlined in Appendix 4 and the state of readiness of the 1st tranche projects i.e.: -
• That further work is required to develop detailed proposals for Stechford Cascades and the Sparkhill/Moseley area
Cabinet could now move forward on the Harborne project, to take advantage of the current competitive market, whilst maintaining a commitment to progress Full Business Cases for the other 1st tranche projects to be brought back to Cabinet in due course. This course of action would maintain momentum on the pool replacement programme, whilst adopting a pragmatic approach within the financial constraints.
From that also flowed the decision
Cabinet is also recommended to: -
2.11 To authorise the sum of £100,000 funded from the LTFS provision for major capital projects to develop options for a solution for swimming pool provision in the Sparkhill/Moseley area and the outcome and Project Definition Document will again be brought back to Cabinet for consideration in due course,
The 50m pool complex - known as BALC - has had the full business case prepared, but is still to have final approval
2.5 To note the Full Business Case for the Birmingham Aquatics and Leisure Complex (BALC)... and is still subject to the capital funding being identified from the capital contingency fund and capital receipts.
They haven't tied down the funding for this flagship project yet, so haven't progressed it. To keep Tranche 1 projects moving, the Harborne pool (coincidentally in Mike Whitby's ward) will be built and funding has been located for this project.
Some technical issues around BALC were agreed to be progressed, but it is interesting that the only commitment made at that meeting was to progress the other projects to the stage of having a full business case produced, for which £100k of funding was made available. We know that the costs of replacing Sparkhill pool are likely to be in line with the Harborne costing - £10-15 million. The current phasing of the plan indicates construction is planned for completion in 2013/14, despite the promise of completion within two years - construction isn't even proposed until 2011/12 at the earliest, although there is the potential for demolition and groundwork in the 2010/11 budget year, according to the proposal.
So far, those business cases have yet to come back to Cabinet,
so no decision has formally been taken to replace Sparkhill pool. Cllr Mullaney maintains that the commitment is there, but the paperwork does not demonstrate this, although I accept his word about the
political intent.
Comparing the two documents, you will see that the capital costs of Harborne translate into the plan, along with some other costs for moving the rest of the Tranche 1 projects forward for the next stage of approval. Interestingly, there is no funding identified for subsequent years for any other swimming pool proposal.
It has to be noted that this may change - the forecasts for 2011 and 2012 spends are just predictions. Actual capital spend may well turn out to be different from that predicted, but it is absolutely clear that no funding has currently been agreed for the Sparkhill baths replacement. Indeed, final approval from the Cabinet has yet to be obtained and cannot be obtained until the business cases are presented.
Cllr Mullaney may well have an informal promise that this will be forthcoming when the business cases are brought to Cabinet, but this is not the same as
'Your local Lib Dem team have succeeded in securing funding for the rebuilding of Sparkhill Baths.... the rebuilding is likely to take around 2 years to complete'
The publicly available evidence of decisions taken by the council simply does not justify that conclusion. I would have to agree with Cllr Yaqoob that
The minutes of the council meeting report Councillor Mullaney as saying this: “…from an officer point of view, nothing has been allocated as such to Sparkhill, but there is the political will to allocate sufficient money to rebuild Sparkhill Pool.” So, as “nothing has been allocated as such” to Sparkhill pool, I will not be changing my article. But I am happy to repeat that Councillor Mullaney said there is the “political will” to come up with the money for Sparkhill.
It seems entirely reasonable for Cllr Yaqoob to call the Liberal Democrats on their misleading publicity.
In summary: the Cabinet have yet to approve the construction of the replacement baths and therefore no money has yet been allocated to the project. To state anything else is not supported by the evidence available. Indeed, if there is evidence that agreement has already been reached, those involved should withdraw from any further decision-making on the project, as they cannot be expected to reach a decision on the reports presented.
Given that Cllr Mullaney faced the wrath of the Standards Committee himself only a short while ago, his behaviour in using the process simply to bully a fellow councillor into accepting his particular world view is unacceptable and he should withdraw the complaint.
Back when HE was on the wrong end of a Standards Board complaint - and I had some sympathy with him at the time - he wrote on The Stirrer that
I believe that members of the public should decide at the ballot box whether or not they think a Councillor has been disrespectful. I don't think it is the role of the Standards Board to decide on the Ps and Qs of politicians.
I agree with that statement. This complaint appears to be solely politically motivated and an attempt to use the complaints process to undermine the parliamentary campaign of an opponent for the benefit of one of Martin's political colleagues.
I think he should consider whether this is behaviour appropriate to a Cabinet Member on Birmingham City Council, or indeed to a councillor.
Labels: Hall Green, Martin Mullaney, Salma Yaqoob, Sparkhill, Swimming Pools
Tory redundancies hit home
The Conservatives are cutting council jobs in Birmingham, but they want us to know that they are suffering too, so cuts are hitting them as well.
Cllr Les Lawrence is one of the innocent victims, but news reaches me that after 16 years of loyal , if unobtrusive, service in the ultra-safe seat of Sutton New Hall,
Cllr June Fuller has been deselected by her local party in advance of the elections in May.
She is to be replaced by another of Team Alden,
Dennis Byrd, when he will be returned by the voters of Sutton for wearing a blue rosette.
EDIT: the new candidate is James Bird, a senior member of Edgbaston constituency party. My mistake.Labels: Birmingham Council, Conservatives, selection, Sutton Coldfield
