Saturday, September 29, 2007

Betting frenzy

Ladbrokes have apparently suspended betting on the date of the next election.

Betfair are less squeamish and are keeping going.

Some little while ago, the US government had to suspend a betting market on international events, which was running as an experiment to distill received wisdom into a usable intelligence product. In the same way, reading the runes from those betting in the online market, an election is forecast in the next quarter. Labour will win and both Cameron and Campbell will be gone from their leaderships by Christmas. Gordon isn't expected to resign until some time after 2011.

I'm increasingly of the view that we are on for Nov 1 unless something happens to stop it.


Simon said...

I'm going to put a small sum on Jan-Jun '08. I think this for two reasons:

(i) Dave always looks good on TV and his standing is very likely to have been improved by the end of the week.

(ii) Gordon always bides his time over these things. I had thought that in refusing to stab Blair in the back he was behaving like a choker who lacked the ruthlessness for the top job, but now I realise he was playing a very long and clever game to marginalise his opponents. Calling a snap election now looks hasty and opportunistic and thus thoroughly against his character.

So I think he will pull back.

Radders said...

I was able to get a couple of quid on when the price went out to 10s during the first week of September. The odds have moved quite dramatically since then.
But if he does go to the Queen this week, the winnings will not really help cover the cost of the election!