Tuesday, December 02, 2008

An early Christmas present for Gordon!

Did I tell you how much I love ComRes polls?

No? Well I do.

1 point behind? Conservative 37%, Labour 36% and LD 17%.

The only slight fly in the ointment is where the vote comes from. (Full details available from ComRes here). We're particularly strong in the DE segment - leading the Tories by 26 percentage points and it is good to see the traditional working class vote coming home. The problem is that they are less likely to vote - only 46% of DEs would be sure to vote in a putative election today, compared to the 58-60% certainty to vote for the ABC1s. This group - along with the C2s - is showing strongly for the Tories, with a seven point lead.

Don't put too much on this one poll - it could be a rogue outlier, but if it isn't, then don't book a holiday for May....


Fergus said...

Given that the next poll out showed a Tory lead of 15%, someone needs to be asking some serious questions about methodology (of all the pollsters).

Still, I can always fall back on Smithson's Axiom - in any given round of polls, that showing the worst position for Labour is the most accurate.

Whilst that is both an over-simplification and just a joke, there is a serious issue around the over-rating of the Labour position as against actual elections that appears very difficult for pollsters to eliminate.

Discuss (or not)!

PoliticalHack said...

Can't say I'm that surprised. It felt like a rogue poll.

Your thoughts on methodology mirror the 'shy Tory' problem of the 90s.