Tuesday, January 26, 2010

Scraping out of recession

Only just, but we are through the worst.

We've been badly hurt because of our central position as a key focal point for the world's financial trading and banking operations, so we've taken longer to pull out. The danger now is that this fragile recovery might be derailed. This month's loss of productivity due to snow won't help in the immediate term and nor would the Tory plan to slash and burn government spending. Dumping people back onto the dole queue isn't a solution. The government has to sustain the economy in the short term until the private sector is able to pick up the strain again. We've managed to scrape through with unemployment at 8% - behind the 10% in the US and the EU - and Liam Byrne reports that the growth, although slight, has a reasonably broad base across manufacturing and services.

No matter how much George Osborne postures, looking petulant in TV studios isn't a substitute for real policies.

Cameron and Osborne have got it wrong on the economy before. Rough as this has been over the past year, the Conservatives would have made it deeper and harsher with their failure to respond to the initial problems. Dominique Strauss-Kahn, who chairs the IMF commented that
if you exit too early (from the stimulus steps), then you’ll have the risk of going back into recession

So all the talk of cutting now is downright dangerous.

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