Tuesday, March 02, 2010


On Sunday, Mike Smithson over at Political Betting reported that the Sunday Times had altered the figures reported on the YouGov survey to reduce the Tory lead from 6% to 2%. At the time, I commented that this poll seemed like an outlier and further confirmation was required. Today's poll from YouGov, published in the Sun, extends the Tory lead back to 7%, ascribing the 5% shift to Cameron's speechifying in Brighton.

This seems like a big leap based upon one speech which was generally received with mixed results. I would posit two alternative theories.

One, that Sunday's poll was an outlier and gave a freak result just outside the margin of error.

Two, that the Sunday Times took the worst possible outcome from the poll as the headline figure to try to create a Tory bounce.

1 comment:

Stewart said...

Just got this off the net (ITN via yahoo) "Further evidence that Conservative support is dwindling came in a ComRes survey for The Independent showing the Tory lead narrowing to five points in the past month.

While the findings give David Cameron a bigger slice of the popular vote, such a result is likely to return Labour with the most MPs because of the first-past-the-post electoral system."

Looks straight down the middle! However not "Ashcroftially adjusted".