Monday, April 12, 2010

Polls all over the shop

By all accounts, the Tories should have had a good week - they've had the headlines with business leaders coming out against the hike in National Insurance and the media flow seems to have been with them. Osborne's been largely kept locked in the bunker and only allowed out under cover of darkness, so there's been little to stop the flow.

Yet, YouGov for the Sun is this morning reporting that the Conservative lead has dropped by four points on the week and an ICM poll of the 97 key marginals that the Tories must win to have any hope of forming a government saw Labour ahead - I'll say that again - Labour AHEAD by one percentage point. I'm surprised by that, but I'm also dubious of the fieldwork involved in narrowing down the selection to just the marginals. My gut feeling is that the Tories will do better in the marginals than on the uniform national swing, but that it will be by around 1.5%, not as dramatic a shift as Ashcroft's money should expect.

Yet in a poll of pollsters, seven out of eight thought that the Tories would squeak in and the eighth thought about it for a while and then clarified his stance by agreeing with the rest of them.

Does anyone have any idea where this is going?

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