Wednesday, April 09, 2014

Another one bites the dust - The David Cameron Confidence Indicator

"David Cameron has full confidence in...."

Survivors (so far)
Jeremy Hunt
Full confidence declared 28 June 2010
Full confidence declared again 24 April 2012
Reshuffled from Secretary of State at DCMS to Secretary of State for Health 4 Sept 2012
(Considered a promotion, so confidence still holds)

Theresa May
Full confidence declared 7 November 2011
Full confidence declared again 20 April 2012
Still in office as Home Secretary at time of going to press.

Francis Maude
Full confidence declared 2 April 2012
Still in office as Cabinet Office minister at time of going to press

Confidence - and job - lost.

Maria Miller
Full confidence declared 13 December 2012
Full confidence declared again 2 April 2014
Still in office as Secretary of State for Culture at time of going to press

Stephen Green
Full confidence declared 23 July 2012
"Retired from government" 10 December 2013.

Andrew Mitchell
Full confidence declared 12:16 24 September 2012
Resigned as Chief Whip 19 October 2012

Caroline Spelman
Full confidence declared 28 June 2008
Replaced as Conservative Chairman 19 January 2009
Finally sacked as Secretary of State for Environment 4 Sept 2012

Andy Coulson
Full confidence declared 11.25am 21 January 2011
Resigned as Comms Director 11:37am 21 January 2011

HRH Prince Andrew

Full confidence declared 8 March 2011.
"Stepped down" as trade envoy 22 July 2011

Chris Huhne
Full confidence declared 16 May 2011
Full confidence declared again 2.14pm 20 January 2012
Resigned 10:50am 3 Feb 2012.

Liam Fox
Full confidence declared 8 October 2011
Resigned as Defence Secretary 14 October 2011

Baroness Warsi
Full confidence declared 27 May 2012
Reshuffled 4 Sept 2012 to 'Senior' Minister of State at Foreign Office
(Demotion, so confidence lost)

Andrew Lansley
Full 'support' declared 15:13 7 February 2012
Full confidence declared again 14 May 2012
Reshuffled as Secretary of State for Health to Leader of the House of Commons 4 Sept 2012
(I consider this a demotion, although still Cabinet level, so consider confidence lost)

With Maria Miller's enforced departure, as the keys to the red box were prised from her hands - note that Cameron repeatedly refused to answer when asked if she had been asked to quit, we now have an 77% chance of departure once the PM has given you his full backing. Miller took 482 days to go after the first confidence assurance, but just seven days after the second assertion. We now have an average of 193 days if we count from the first guarantee of confidence and 111 from the second vote of confidence.

The record is likely to remain with Andy Coulson, who took just 12 minutes to lose the PM's confidence. Jeremy Hunt holds the record for the longest survival after confidence was first declared, which took less than two months of being in office. Andrew Mitchell also holds the record as the Cameron's only government Chief Whip not to have lost a parliamentary vote. His successor has not only lost a vote, but lost an MP.

The truth here is that no minister should have to have the PM's confidence in them stated publicly. The very fact that it is an issue indicates that the minister is on a slippery slope....

1 comment:

Gareth said...

Fantastic summary, this needs to be made into t-shirts and billboards!

Molotov Maude now has CallMeDave's 'Full confidence'. The clock is ticking...