Tuesday, October 16, 2012

An academic exercise

The Boundary Commission have announced their plans for the parliamentary geography for the West Midlands. The highlights for Birmingham are that Sutton Coldfield remains as it is, but the rest of Birmingham looks to be safe Labour, should these plans go ahead, although the Tories might fancy their chances in Erdington or Harborne, but that would be a stretch with the current political system. I would suspect that Solihull would be a Tory gain still, but only marginally over the Liberal Democrats, who will import their mass vote from Sheldon. I also think that Meriden could be interesting, particularly with the mass Labour vote from Shard End being imported into a previously true blue constituency - which was a close-run thing in 1997.

Is this just an academic exercise or will the Tories surprise us?

Birmingham Edgbaston - LAB
Edgbaston, Moseley & Kings Heath, Selly Oak, Sparkbrook

Birmingham Erdington and Castle Bromwich - LAB (Poss Con target)
Erdington, Kingstanding, Stockland Green, Tyburn, Castle Bromwich (currently Solihull)

Birmingham Hall Green - LAB
Billesley, Brandwood, Hall Green, Springfield

Birmingham Harborne - LAB (poss Con target)
Bartley Green, Harborne, Quinton, Weoley, Old Warley (Sandwell)

Birmingham Ladywood - LAB
Hodge Hill, Ladywood, Nechells, Washwood Heath

Birmingham Northfield - LAB
Bournville, Kings Norton, Longbridge, Northfield

Birmingham Perry Barr - LAB
Aston, Handsworth Wood, Lozells and East Handsworth, Perry Barr

Birmingham Yardley - LAB
Acocks Green, Bordesley Green, South Yardley, Stechford & Yardley North

Sutton Coldfield - CON
Sutton Four Oaks, Sutton New Hall, Sutton Trinity, Sutton Vesey

Meriden - CON (Lab target)
Shard End (Birmingham), Bickenhill, Chelmsley Wood, Kingshurst & Fordbridge, Knowle, Meriden, Smith's Wood (all Solihull)

Solihull - CON (LD marginal)
Sheldon (Birmingham), Elmdon, Lyndon, Olton, St Alphege, Shirley East, Silhill

Birmingham's Soho ward goes into a Smethwick constituency, which is safe Labour. Oscott goes into Walsall South,

[EDIT: to correct misspelling of Old Warley]


Cllr Fergus Robinson said...

Hi John - think you mean "Old Warley", not "Old Weoley"!

John O'Shea said...

Fair point Fergus. Glad somebody else reads these ramblings.