Saturday, November 01, 2014

The rolling David Cameron Confidence Indicator of Doom

"David Cameron has full confidence in...."

Survivors (so far)
Jeremy Hunt
Full confidence declared 28 June 2010
Full confidence declared again 24 April 2012
Reshuffled from Secretary of State at DCMS to Secretary of State for Health 4 Sept 2012
(Considered a promotion, so confidence still holds)

Theresa May
Full confidence declared 7 November 2011
Full confidence declared again 20 April 2012
Still in office as Home Secretary at time of going to press.

Francis Maude
Full confidence declared 2 April 2012
Still in office as Cabinet Office minister at time of going to press

Lord Freud
Full confidence declared 4:13pm 15 October 2014
Still in office as welfare minister at time of going to press

Confidence - and job - lost.

Fiona Woolf
Full confidence declared 22 October 2014
Quit as second chair of inquiry into child abuse allegations 31 October 2014
The Home Secretary had declared her full confidence in Fiona Woolf a whole 30 minutes earlier.

Dame Elizabeth Butler-Sloss
Full confidence declared 9 July 2014
Quit as chair of inquiry into child abuse allegations 14 July 2014

Maria Miller
Full confidence declared 13 December 2012
Full confidence declared again 2 April 2014
Resigned 9 April 2014

Stephen Green
Full confidence declared 23 July 2012
"Retired from government" 10 December 2013.

Andrew Mitchell
Full confidence declared 12:16 24 September 2012
Resigned as Chief Whip 19 October 2012

Caroline Spelman
Full confidence declared 28 June 2008
Replaced as Conservative Chairman 19 January 2009
Finally sacked as Secretary of State for Environment 4 Sept 2012

Andy Coulson
Full confidence declared 11.25am 21 January 2011
Resigned as Comms Director 11:37am 21 January 2011

HRH Prince Andrew

Full confidence declared 8 March 2011.
"Stepped down" as trade envoy 22 July 2011

Chris Huhne
Full confidence declared 16 May 2011
Full confidence declared again 2.14pm 20 January 2012
Resigned 10:50am 3 Feb 2012.

Liam Fox
Full confidence declared 8 October 2011
Resigned as Defence Secretary 14 October 2011

Baroness Warsi
Full confidence declared 27 May 2012
Reshuffled 4 Sept 2012 to 'Senior' Minister of State at Foreign Office
(Demotion, so confidence lost - quit 5 August 2014)

Andrew Lansley
Full 'support' declared 15:13 7 February 2012
Full confidence declared again 14 May 2012
Reshuffled as Secretary of State for Health to Leader of the House of Commons 4 Sept 2012
(I consider this a demotion, although still Cabinet level, so consider confidence lost)

Lord Freud is hanging on in there, but I've added two new victims of the Prime Minister's Black Spot of Confidence. Dame Elizabeth Butler-Sloss and Fiona Woolf. 75% of those so marked by the PM end up walking the lonely walk out of office.

Miller took 482 days to go after the first confidence assurance, but just seven days after the second assertion. We now have an average of 162 days if we count from the first guarantee of confidence and 111 from the second vote of confidence.

The record is likely to remain with Andy Coulson, who took just 12 minutes to lose the PM's confidence - although Fiona Woolf did receive the Home Secretary's full backing a mere 30 minutes before she fell on her own sword. Jeremy Hunt holds the record for the longest survival after confidence was first declared, which took less than two months of being in office. Andrew Mitchell also holds the record as the Cameron's only government Chief Whip not to have lost a parliamentary vote. His successor has not only lost a vote, but lost two MPs. So far.

The truth here is that no minister should have to have the PM's confidence in them stated publicly.

The very fact that it is an issue indicates that the minister is on a slippery slope....